German Investors Fear Recession

Investor confidence in October fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 years, adding to signs that the debt crisis is reaching Europe's biggest economy. Photo: Hamburg's Containerport.

The Mannheim-based ZEW Centre for European Economic Research‘s
index, which measures the mood among analysts and institutional
investors, slumped deeper into negative territory this month, falling
to minus 48.3 points, from minus 43.3 in August.

"Weak data concerning Germany‘s domestic economic activity have
contributed to the indicator‘s decline," the ZEW said releasing the
survey, which measures expectations six months down the track.

"As a result of the drop in retail sales and industrial new orders
the financial market experts may see their fears come true that the
current government debt crisis could cause German companies and
consumers to postpone investments and consumption spending," it said.

The October fall was the indicator‘s eighth consecutive monthly
decline. It now stands at its lowest level since November 2008, when
the financial crisis was taking hold around the world.
Based on a survey of 271 analysts, the ZEW‘s fall was also bigger
than analysts‘ forecasts, which had pointed to a drop to minus 44.5.

"The further drop in expectations for the next six months is in
line with our view of a marked slowdown in the German economy in late
2011," said Elga Bartsch, European economist with Morgan Stanley.

After growing by 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter in the three
months to the end of September, Barclays Capital said in a note to
clients Tuesday that it expects the German economy to contract by 0.1
per cent in the final quarter of the year.

Still, most economists are expecting the German economy to chalk
up a solid growth rate this year of about 3 per cent. This comes
after it bounded into the new year on a strong 1.3 per-cent expansion
rate.

The release of the ZEW survey follows months of investor
uncertainty unleashed by worries about the outlook for global
economic growth and the debt crisis gripping parts of the 17-member
eurozone.

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